I've been very closely following the present economic crisis and the political response to it.  Obviously, I don't have an insiders view but if one looks close enough, it's possible to get a sense of what is really occurring; that is, what's happening that our political leadership isn't talking about.  We've read various leaders suggest that the economy should recover in the latter part of 2009 or the first half of 2010.  I hope that some form of economic recovery occurs but more than likely what we'll see is stabilization of the economy at a level far below what it was in say 2007.  For those who have an interest in such things, we are in what some economists call a 'secular bear market.'  Historically in the past 100+ years, we have see three such markets:  1906 to 1921, 1929-1949, and 1966-1982:  These lasted 16, 21, and 17 years respectively.  What I am saying then is that if, and this is a very big if, if the economy stabilizes in 2009 or 2010, in no way will it resemble the economy of the recent boom years it takes that long to recover from the kind of systemic ills we and the rest of the world now face.  And the thing is, because of Peak Oil and Global Warming, there's a very good chance that when we do achieve a full economic turn around, in perhaps 15 years, the world's economy isn't going to look like it did until 2007.  It can't if humanity expects to survive as a species.  I believe we are going to see a return to localism and a significant decrease in globalization.  Globalization was largely based on cheap energy and that was a faulty premise in the 1990s; it's preposterous today.  As Carter warned us 30 years ago; Americans are going to have to learn to accept considerably less than what we are used to.  We really can't have it all without paying.  That was Reagan's lie and we'll all pay for it in the next decade or so.  If we can figure a way forward, I suspect, the future will include a significant reduction in the reliance on fossil fuels.  This fact alone is goingto result in the creation of an economy markedly different from what we grew up with.

I guess my point here is to say clearly that our political leaders aren't telling all of the facts because they want to avoid panic but for anyoen who wishes to prepare for the inevitable publization of the facts, likely after Obama is sworn in, don't expect an economic recovery in the next ten years.  At best, we can hope for economic stablization and if we are lucky, Obama will resist Conservative pressure to raise taxes and cut spendign to reduce the deficit.  At this point, the deficit is large but it's the least of our worries.  If it's any consolation, our situation is much, much better than that faced by Russia or China.  If I had to wager, I'd bet neither country's government will survive in its current incarnation.